Nice surprise! A democratic setback for the climate urgency

14 June 2021 All categories Comments (1)

Yesterday, in the very first national democratic poll ever organized in the World on this issue, the climate alarmism was sanctioned by a narrow majority (51,6% of the votes): the Swiss people rejected a federal law on CO2 that had been concocted between the Federal council (the government) and the Swiss parliament (made of two chambers, as in the USA) to allegedly fight against climate change, or to save the climate, or to put it under control, or just to stop emitting CO2, whatever. It is the right and the privilege of the Swiss citizen, the sovereign, to be able to repel or to confirm laws that are controversial.

The proposed law entailed a series of measures designed to reduce the country’s CO2 emissions.  As such laws can only become, it was a complex hodgepodge of many things, the details of which are of little importance[1], in short: taxation of all kinds followed by selective redistribution to various constituencies, all of them very actively campaigning in favour of this law.

Yet, one should not jump too easily to conclusions. The purpose of a vote in direct democracy is not to discover any truth; it is merely a way of taking decision, to say yes or no to a narrow question. This ‘no’ to the proposed text by a little bit more than half of the voters does neither mean that Switzerland is made up of climate sceptics or deniers, nor that there is no climate change.

While opinion polls indicate generally that climate change is considered a serious issue, the negative vote of the Swiss citizens is rather a sign of distrust: they dislike complex and costly measures that have little prospect for efficacy. They also hate policies consisting in punitive measures and behavioural constraints. But above all, they do not easily accept the climate emergency, as the propaganda keeps harping on, and which the other half of the citizens gullibly adopt. How many times humankind should have become extinct, should all the announced catastrophic urgencies have materialized?

What will come next?

Climate activists will not dare entertain the idea of being mistaken, it would be too much to ask. On the contrary, we can expect a propaganda surge from their part to correct this “wrong vote” which they will attribute to obscure lobbying, lack of awareness or of consciousness, and misinformation. They should rather relish: this vote gives them the great opportunity to present themselves as misunderstood victims of an unjust system, of all kinds of ill will, and of obscurantism.

More subtill politicians will rework this law, or another one to be called law on the climate rather then being limited to CO2. Hopefully, they will have understood that the carrot and, above all, the stick policy cannot succeed. No more a pork and barrel issue, they will need to orient their policy alongside risks and efficacy considerations, devoid of ideology preferences. Thus, instead of taxes they will need to set standards that contribute to risk reduction. But such risks must be evaluated in the terms of climate impact, economic feasibility, and side-effects on society and on nature. Just one number, tons of CO2, is an oversimplification of a not yet understood issue.

As climate science cannot be reduced to a single regulatory knob, they will need to work harder if they want to convince anybody, themselves to begin with, of the usefulness of what they will propose. There is a great demand for better research. And, the urgency now being set aside, they can take whatever time is needed to get it right, but not at any cost. The energy policy will also need some rework, in particular for a safe and reliable supply of electrical power. As we cannot anymore count on neighbours to palliate capacity losses after closing our nuclear power plants, it is now high time to plan for new and better ones.

What about the commitments made in the Paris Agreement? At last, Switzerland will stop playing the overbidding first of the class. This newfound sobriety will do no harm to anyone but on a few egos.

[1] CO2 emission reduction targets (p/r 1990): 50% in 2030 – Net zero in 2050 – 3/4 to be realized in Switzerland (in 2018: 13.6% already achieved). Carbon taxation to build a “Climate Fund”, fuel taxed from today’s 96 Fr/ton CO2 to 210 Fr/ton, petrol tax of 12 t/Litre, participation to an exchange of emission quota, tax on air tickets, promotion of energy saving measures, restrictions on investments in fossil associated industries, R&D support for correctly oriented projects. Complex mechanisms of exemptions and subsidies. (Exchange rate: 1 EUR = 1,10 CHF, 1 USD = 0,90 CHF)

Article already published on European Scientist


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1 thought on “Nice surprise! A democratic setback for the climate urgency”

  1. § The affair is politically complex: the people of my Municipality Echichens refused the modifications of the Law on CO2 like Switzerland, my County of Vaud accepted it widely, Switzerland refused it with 51.6% of NO; and the said Law (in its previous version) will therefore not yet go to the trash …
    § In all the debates of the last few weeks, on which I have been able to have information, the public just missed a series of data on the absence of a direct link between energy expenditure and the climate …
    The matter is subtle (in physics): if you produce CO2 in 2021, you hardly modify the behavior of the atmosphere, but if the average global temperature (aka measure of “global climate”) changes, the concentration of CO2 will evolve too; it is therefore a TRACER – and not a means of acting on the climate; it is visible by looking at the curves.
    § The IPCC liars in 1995 took the opportunity to make the whole Earth agree that there was an urgent need to reduce gas emissions (such as CO2, CH4, etc.), as if humanity would had received a means to modify the global climate, so as if there was a so-called climate emergency. A successful attempt for 26 years to gain power over our energy sources!

    But in Switzerland, translated into money, the so-called takeover partially failed, with the vote of 13.6.2021: Hope it lasts!

    Reply

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