At the current rate, it would take two centuries for the world to achieve the first phase of decarbonisation decided upon at international conferences and enacted into performative laws. However, 2.6% of global GDP is already invested each year in so-called clean energy. Is it realistic to aim for carbon neutrality within 25 years, eight times faster than now, and by investing more than 20% of GDP year in, year out? Where is the error?
It is not reflected in the figures: in 2024, fossil fuels accounted for 86.6% of global primary energy consumption. The decline in this proportion has remained at around 0.33% per year for several years we have [1]. If carbon neutrality were still to tolerate the use of 20% fossil fuels for industrial activities whose emissions would be captured and sequestered sustainably (a “gross zero” target), then it would take 200 years to achieve this. And let us remember that, so far, only low hanging fruits have been harvested, the esaiest to pick. Non-carbon-based energy consumption is certainly still growing, but at a slower pace, a sign that new opportunities are becoming more difficult to exploit. Any exponential growth eventually reaches its logistical limits.
The error does not lie in the reality of needs, either. The growth in energy demand is such that fossil fuels must still be developed to meet it. This is particularly true for electricity production in Germany, as well as in China and other BRICS countries.
Energy efficiency is not an issue either, as it is improving with an energy consumption that is growing much more slowly (1.2% per year, of which 0.8% is still accounted for by fossil fuels) than the economy in general (with a GDP growth rate of +2.5% per year).
The error must therefore be sought elsewhere, in media and political circles that are pervaded by a dominant environmentalism: they are incapable of assimilating the few pieces of evidence presented above, taken from official publications.[2].
These are orders of magnitude that cannot be ignored and that imply the need to change the nature and scale of the objectives, to cease believing that we are the masters of the climate, to cease imposing unsustainable solutions, and to cease measuring everything in terms of carbon emissions while we are still being fed on them for a very long time to come.
If we believe we are on the path to carbon neutrality, then we are only taking very small steps in that direction that cost more than the ills we wish to avoid. From COP to COP, the objectives need to be revisited, made more modest, more realistic, more affordable.
[1] See these original graphs which seem to be of no interest to those concerned:https://blog.mr-int.ch/?page_id=11922
[2] Energy Institute, 2025 Statistical Review of World EnergyWorld Bank, World Development Indicators (WDI)International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Investment 2025
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