{"id":529,"date":"2012-01-12T10:59:48","date_gmt":"2012-01-12T09:59:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/?p=529"},"modified":"2015-05-17T12:45:50","modified_gmt":"2015-05-17T11:45:50","slug":"tentative-de-correlation-pour-le-climat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/?p=529","title":{"rendered":"Tentative de corr\u00e9lation pour le climat"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote><p>Pour tous les d\u00e9tails voir la m\u00eame page en version anglaise.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>En utilisant le \u00a0nouveau logiciel \u00ab\u00a0formulize\u00a0\u00bb que l&rsquo;on peut t\u00e9l\u00e9charger gratuitement \u00e0\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nutonian.com\/\">www.nutonian.com<\/a>,\u00a0une corr\u00e9lation a \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9tablie liant les anomalies de temp\u00e9rature avec la concentration en CO<sub>2<\/sub>, la transmittance des rayons solaires (r\u00e9duite apr\u00e8s des \u00e9ruptions volcaniques), les ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes d&rsquo;oscillations de courants dans les oc\u00e9ans (El Ni\u00f1o &#8211; La Ni\u00f1a, oc\u00e9an atlantique), ainsi que les \u00e9pisodes de taches solaires.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>T<sub>A<\/sub>\u00a0= f(CO<sub>2<\/sub>, TRAN, MEI, AMO, Spot)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Une \u00e9quation relativement simple a \u00e9t\u00e9 trouv\u00e9e avec un coefficient de corr\u00e9lation pas trop mauvais.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>TA = 0.2440446458*AMO + 0.1134248525*delay(AMO, 5) + 0.06428597063*delay(MEI, 2)<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>+ 0.006701866248*delay(CO2, 9) + delay(TRAN, 2)*delay(TRAN, 10) \u2013 3.046514859<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>en repr\u00e9sentation graphique:<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"Correlation_1\" src=\"http:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/Correlation_1-300x195.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"195\" \/><\/p>\n<p>On notera la d\u00e9pendance lin\u00e9aire avec le\u00a0CO<sub>2<\/sub>.<\/p>\n<p>Avec d&rsquo;autres param\u00e8tre de d\u00e9part on obtient une corr\u00e9lation qui ne fait \u00a0intervenir le\u00a0CO<sub>2<\/sub> que sous une variation cyclique (dans une fonction cosinus) mais non comme facteur d&rsquo;accumulation:<\/p>\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>TA = 0.09362477205*delay(MEI, 2) + 0.2932284049*cos(AMO + 0.03104125154*CO2<br \/>\n+ delay(AMO, 6) \u2013 0.06208250307*delay(MEI, 2)) + delay(TRAN, 11) \u2013 0.1405903365<br \/>\n&#8211; cos(delay(TRAN, 1))<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/Correlation_2.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"Correlation_2\" src=\"http:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/Correlation_2-300x195.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"195\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Ainsi donc on reste dans le doute car il est possible de repr\u00e9senter le pass\u00e9 r\u00e9cent du climat sans forc\u00e9ment devoir faire intervenir une augmentation de temp\u00e9rature en relation directe avec la concentration en CO<sub>2<\/sub>.<\/p>\n<p>Il reste donc pas mal de travail pour les chercheurs.<\/p>\n<p>Et aussi il faut plus de prudence et moins d&rsquo;activisme dans la lutte contre les \u00e9missions de gaz carbonique, car cela pourrait se r\u00e9v\u00e9ler inutile voire dommageable pour le d\u00e9veloppement.<\/p>\n<p>Attention: une corr\u00e9lation n&rsquo;implique pas automatiquement une \u00a0relation de cause \u00e0 effet.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Une corr\u00e9lation a \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9tablie liant les anomalies de temp\u00e9rature avec la concentration en CO2, la transmittance des rayons solaires (r\u00e9duite apr\u00e8s des \u00e9ruptions volcaniques), les ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes d&rsquo;oscillations de courants dans les oc\u00e9ans (El Ni\u00f1o &#8211; La Ni\u00f1a, oc\u00e9an atlantique), ainsi que les \u00e9pisodes de taches solaires. Une corr\u00e9lation n&rsquo;est pas une loi physique cependant des liens plausibles sont identifi\u00e9s.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":6,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[38,13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-529","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-climat","category-science-technology-fr"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/529","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=529"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/529\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=529"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=529"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=529"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}