![\"\"](\"http:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/amo.png\")
<\/a>Smoothing by centered running averages
AMO_13m, over 13 months
AMO_7y, over 7 years
AMO_7ym: of each month of the year, over 7 years.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
The total energy accumulated each year by tropical storms and hurricanes (ACE) is also showing such a cyclic pattern.<\/p>\n
NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division explanations on ACE: \u201cthe ACE is calculated by squaring the maximum sustained surface wind in the system every six hours (knots) and summing it up for the season. It is expressed in 104<\/sup> kt2<\/sup>.\u201d Direct instrumental observations are available as monthly series since 1848. A historic reconstruction since 1851 was done by NOAA<\/a> (yearly means).<\/p>\n A correlation between ACE and AMO is confirmed by regression analysis.<\/p>\n Regression formula:<\/p>\n ACE_calc = 99.58 + 142.75*AMO_7y + 40.11*delay(AMO_7y,18) Thus, a simple, linear relation ties ACE to AMO, in part directly, and in part with an 18 years delay. The correlation coefficient is astonishingly good.<\/p>\n Origin and mechanisms directing AMO are quite unknown. Therefore, any speculation aiming at associating cyclone energy with other phenomena, as e.g. anthropogenic climate warming, would need a clear and cut irrefutable proof. Model speculations cannot serve as proof without full validation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Various sources, scientists publishing their opinion in the media, claim that Tropical Storm Harvey, recently landed in Texas, is one more signal of the influence of global warming on such catastrophic events. These claims are based on model calculations. Let\u2019s examine the facts. In the Atlantic Ocean, sea surface temperature oscillations are observed as a … Continue reading \u00ab\u00a0Cyclone energy and oceanic oscillations\u00a0\u00bb<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":4234,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":10,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[1,37],"tags":[99,98,47,100,101],"class_list":["post-4248","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","category-climate","tag-ace","tag-amo","tag-climate","tag-hurricane","tag-tropical-storm"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4248","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4248"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4248\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/4234"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4248"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4248"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4248"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}<\/a>
ACE_7y: centered running average over 7 years<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/a>
AMO: yearly means of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillations
ACE_7y: yearly observed accumulated cyclone energy
ACE_calc: calculated ACE by using the indicated formula.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\nPearson R2 = 0.9245<\/p>\n