{"id":4165,"date":"2017-06-29T12:09:04","date_gmt":"2017-06-29T10:09:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch?p=4165"},"modified":"2017-06-29T12:09:04","modified_gmt":"2017-06-29T10:09:04","slug":"self-criticism-of-the-no-evidence-finding","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/?p=4165&lang=en","title":{"rendered":"Self-criticism of the \u00ab no evidence \u00bb finding"},"content":{"rendered":"

In my yesterday\u2019s article<\/a> about the lack of evidence tying observed global mean temperature anomalies with atmospheric CO2<\/sub> concentration, I could have taken a different approach and discussed other relevant aspects.<\/p>\n

I didn\u2019t show a straight Ta=f([CO2<\/sub>]) diagram, but took the rate of warming\u00a0 (dTa\/dt) for the y-axis, which had a very poor correlation coefficient (Pearson R2<\/sup>=0.1622). I was just making a point, not looking for alternate explanation, but just for confirmation, or not, of a plausible correlation.<\/p>\n

The straight diagram, also eliminating the 7-year filter, looks like this:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Thus, it wakes the attention that a not so good but plausible correlation would tie temperature to [CO2<\/sub>].<\/p>\n

As we all know that correlation is no causation, to conclude to an evidence would be wrong. By itself in this diagram, the chosen independent variable excludes all other possible causes for temperature change; thus, all changes would be attributed to the arbitrarily selected [CO2<\/sub>]. It suffices to choose another independent variable, for example the magnetic field declination angle of the Earth, to obtain a very similar correlation, as on the next diagram:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The same can be made with sea level changes (R2<\/sup>=0.7363), although that may not be an independent variable.<\/p>\n

Confused? I hope so!<\/p>\n

The only point to take here is that single-minded views, also known as biased approaches, lead to simplistic and wrong conclusions.<\/p>\n

To distinguish the specific weight of each independent parameter, multi-variable regression analysis should be performed. To obtain any useful result would then require that all these independent variables are known, and, of course, that observational data is available. However, such useful data is not available from the experiment Earth running once only in the historic Solar system laboratory.<\/p>\n

Other critique: A temperature vs [CO2<\/sub>] diagram is a static representation, while the climate system has a dynamic response to the anthropogenic CO2<\/sub> input. The time factor is missing.
\nThat\u2019s right! So, what?
\nBeing fed up by time series that explain nothing, I was seeking other ways of skinning that cat. As IPCC experts didn’t approach it like this, it must have some validity.<\/p>\n

A \u201cno evidence\u201d claim cannot pretend to offer an alternative explanation of the system under review. It only falsifies the alleged cause-effect relationship; it tells that the ideal culprit might be totally innocent or only a partial contributor to the observed facts. It tells also that anyone incriminating this alleged culprit for almost all climate ills is bypassing all prudence that a fair evaluation would require.<\/p>\n

Warming was observed, and greenhouse gases are claimed to be the overwhelming cause. If this anthropogenic global warming (AGW) hypothesis cannot be sustained with any element of factual proof, then we must believe in another transcendental knowledge, in this case model extrapolations. And please take it literally: the word belief<\/strong> is of the essence.<\/p>\n

A climate system\u2019s response to radiative forcing (greenhouse effect) must exist, because the physical phenomena cannot be ignored. With this sentence, I qualify for swimming with the mainstream, but only to a point, because no evidence is available demonstrating the magnitude of that effect, considering all short and long-term feedbacks that it triggers. All other contributing factors, natural or anthropogenic, known or unknown, interact in an impossible to parse haystack.<\/p>\n

Considering what models have delivered so far, it would be quite imprudent to accept them as a basis for policy decisions.<\/p>\n

This \u201cno evidence\u201d is actually a very useful scientific finding. And there begins my heresy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In my yesterday\u2019s article about the lack of evidence tying observed global mean temperature anomalies with atmospheric CO2 concentration, I could have taken a different approach and discussed other relevant aspects. I didn\u2019t show a straight Ta=f([CO2]) diagram, but took the rate of warming\u00a0 (dTa\/dt) for the y-axis, which had a very poor correlation coefficient … Continue reading \u00ab\u00a0Self-criticism of the \u00ab no evidence \u00bb finding\u00a0\u00bb<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":4170,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":12,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[37],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4165","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4165","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4165"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4165\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/4170"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4165"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4165"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4165"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}