{"id":6143,"date":"2020-03-24T19:10:12","date_gmt":"2020-03-24T18:10:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/?page_id=6143"},"modified":"2020-05-22T16:27:10","modified_gmt":"2020-05-22T14:27:10","slug":"viralite","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/?page_id=6143","title":{"rendered":"Viralit\u00e9"},"content":{"rendered":"\n    \n    <section class=\"u-clearfix u-section-2\" id=\"sec-60fc\">\n      <div class=\"u-clearfix u-sheet u-sheet-1\">\n        <h1 class=\"u-text u-text-default u-text-1\">Observations faites sur l'\u00e9volution pand\u00e9mique<br>\n        <\/h1>\n        <div class=\"u-clearfix u-expanded-width u-layout-wrap u-layout-wrap-1\">\n          <div class=\"u-layout\">\n            <div class=\"u-layout-row\">\n              <div class=\"u-size-21\">\n                <div class=\"u-layout-col\">\n                  <div class=\"u-container-style u-layout-cell u-left-cell u-size-60 u-layout-cell-1\">\n                    <div class=\"u-container-layout u-container-layout-1\">\n                      <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/12\/54e0d7454953ae14f6da8c7dda79367d1d38d6ed5b586c4870277fdd9f48c350b9_1280.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"u-image u-image-contain u-image-default u-image-1\" data-image-width=\"1280\" data-image-height=\"1055\">\n                    <\/div>\n                  <\/div>\n                <\/div>\n              <\/div>\n              <div class=\"u-size-39\">\n                <div class=\"u-layout-col\">\n                  <div class=\"u-container-style u-layout-cell u-right-cell u-size-60 u-layout-cell-2\">\n                    <div class=\"u-container-layout u-valign-top u-container-layout-2\">\n                      <h2 class=\"u-text u-text-custom-color-1 u-text-default u-text-2\">Mise en garde<br>\n                      <\/h2>\n                      <p class=\"u-large-text u-text u-text-default u-text-variant u-text-3\">Aucune des informations et analyses pr\u00e9sent\u00e9es ici ne saurait \u00eatre comprise comme pr\u00e9vision ou pr\u00e9diction.<br>\n                      <\/p>\n                      <p class=\"u-large-text u-text u-text-font u-text-variant u-text-4\">Le v\u00e9n\u00e9r\u00e9 lecteur est donc pri\u00e9 de prendre ses responsabilit\u00e9s, de ne pas occire le messager, ni de faire des interpr\u00e9tations indues.<br>\n                      <\/p>\n                    <\/div>\n                  <\/div>\n                <\/div>\n              <\/div>\n            <\/div>\n          <\/div>\n        <\/div>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n    <section class=\"u-align-center u-clearfix u-section-3\" id=\"sec-fdbb\">\n      <div class=\"u-clearfix u-sheet u-sheet-1\">\n        <lt-highlighter style=\"display: none; z-index: 1 !important;\">\n          <lt-div spellcheck=\"false\" class=\"lt-highlighter__wrapper\" style=\"width: 320px !important; height: 40px !important; transform: none !important; transform-origin: 160px 20px 0 !important; margin-top: 16px !important; margin-left: 410px !important;\">\n            <canvas style=\"display: none; margin-top: 0 !important; margin-left: 0 !important;\" class=\"lt-highlighter__canvas\" width=\"0\" height=\"0\"><\/canvas>\n          <\/lt-div>\n        <\/lt-highlighter>\n        <h2 class=\"u-text u-text-1\">\u00c9tat au 22 mai 2020<br>\n        <\/h2>\n        <lt-highlighter style=\"display: none; z-index: 1 !important;\">\n          <lt-div spellcheck=\"false\" class=\"lt-highlighter__wrapper\" style=\"width: 1132px !important; height: 64px !important; transform: none !important; transform-origin: 566px 32px 0 !important; margin-top: 20px !important; margin-left: 8px !important;\">\n            <canvas style=\"display: none; margin-top: 0 !important; margin-left: 0 !important;\" class=\"lt-highlighter__canvas\" width=\"298\" height=\"63\"><\/canvas>\n          <\/lt-div>\n        <\/lt-highlighter>\n        <p class=\"u-large-text u-text u-text-font u-text-variant u-text-2\">Ceci aura \u00e9t\u00e9 la derni\u00e8re mise \u00e0 jour de ces graphiques qui, d\u00e9sormais, suivront d'autres <br>dynamiques et d'autres dimensions, encore \u00e0 d\u00e9couvrir, probablement \u00e0 la baisse.<br>\n        <\/p>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n    <section class=\"u-clearfix u-section-4\" id=\"sec-dc7e\">\n      <div class=\"u-clearfix u-sheet u-sheet-1\">\n        <p class=\"u-text u-text-1\">\n\t\t<div class=\"wppdfemb-frame-container-1\" style=\"-webkit-overflow-scrolling:auto;\">\n\t\t\t<iframe class=\"pdfembed-iframe nonfullscreen wppdf-emb-iframe-1\"\n\t\t\t\tsrc=\"https:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/?pdfemb-data=eyJ0aXRsZSI6InNpdHVhdGlvbi1jb3ZpZC0xOS0xIiwiaW5kZXgiOjEsInBkZklEIjo2NDAwLCJwZGZlbWItc2VydmV1cmwiOiJodHRwcyUzQSUyRiUyRmJsb2cubXItaW50LmNoJTJGd3AtY29udGVudCUyRnVwbG9hZHMlMkZzZWN1cmVwZGZzJTJGMjAyMCUyRjA1JTJGc2l0dWF0aW9uLWNvdmlkLTE5LTEucGRmIiwid21fdGV4dCI6IiJ9\"\n\t\t\t\ttitle=\"situation-covid-19-1\"\t\t\t\tdata-pdf-id=\"6400\"\n\t\t\t\tdata-pdf-index=\"1\"\n\t\t\t\tstyle=\"border:none;width:100%;max-width:100%;height:1087px;\"\n\t\t\t\tscrolling=\"yes\">\n\t\t\t<\/iframe>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t<\/p>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n    <section class=\"u-clearfix u-section-5\" id=\"sec-4aad\">\n      <div class=\"u-clearfix u-sheet u-sheet-1\">\n        <div class=\"u-clearfix u-layout-wrap u-layout-wrap-1\">\n          <div class=\"u-layout\">\n            <div class=\"u-layout-row\">\n              <div class=\"u-container-style u-layout-cell u-left-cell u-size-30 u-layout-cell-1\">\n                <div class=\"u-container-layout u-container-layout-1\">\n                  <h2 class=\"u-text u-text-default u-text-1\">Explications<\/h2>\n                  <p class=\"u-text u-text-default u-text-2\">Ce n'est ni l'heure ni le lieu pour critiquer les actions entreprises. Cela pourra \u00eatre le cas plus tard, quand tout le monde aura raison <i>a posteriori<\/i>, donc pas avant plusieurs semaines ou mois. <br>Les courbes calcul\u00e9es le sont par r\u00e9gression selon une formule logistique <br>\n                  <\/p>\n                  <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/fonction-logistique.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"u-image u-image-default u-image-1\" data-image-width=\"800\" data-image-height=\"313\">\n                  <div class=\"u-clearfix u-custom-html u-custom-html-1\">\n                    <style><\/style>\n                    <p>O\u00f9 F est la valeur maximale, c'est-\u00e0 dire le nombre total de cas accumul\u00e9s, k est le taux de croissance <br>et t<sub>0<\/sub> le temps au point d'inflexion de la sigmo\u00efde.\n                    <\/p>\n                  <\/div>\n                  <p class=\"u-text u-text-default u-text-3\">Cela prend environ 2 heures \u00e0 mon ordinateur pour faire une \napproximation des trois param\u00e8tres selon les cas observ\u00e9s au \ntemps t. <br><b>Important ! <\/b>\n                    <br>Il ne s'agit pas d'un mod\u00e8le pr\u00e9dictif. Tant qu'un point \nd'inflexion n'est pas atteint, la hauteur du plateau sera tr\u00e8s inexacte et augmentera au fil du temps. <br>Point d'inflexion: <br>C'est le moment o\u00f9 la vitesse d'augmentation est maximale, au maximum de la \nd\u00e9riv\u00e9e de l'\u00e9quation ci-dessus. <br>Au cours du temps les conditions de lutte contre la contagion changent: \nintensit\u00e9 et cible des tests de d\u00e9pistage, traitement des cas les plus \ns\u00e9v\u00e8res, disponibilit\u00e9 (personnel soignant et de soutien, r\u00e9actifs pour \ntest, mat\u00e9riel de protection, appareils de respiration, lits, etc.). <br>Une fois un \nplateau atteint l'abandon des mesures de restriction pourra donner lieu \u00e0\n des r\u00e9surgences de contagion.\n                  <\/p>\n                <\/div>\n              <\/div>\n              <div class=\"u-container-style u-layout-cell u-right-cell u-size-30 u-layout-cell-2\">\n                <div class=\"u-container-layout u-container-layout-2\">\n                  <h2 class=\"u-text u-text-default u-text-4\">Mise en perspective<br>\n                  <\/h2>\n                  <p class=\"u-text u-text-5\"><b>Nombre de d\u00e9c\u00e8s <br><\/b>\n                  <\/p>\n                  <p class=\"u-text u-text-default u-text-6\">\n<table id=\"tablepress-9\" class=\"tablepress tablepress-id-9\">\n<thead>\n<tr class=\"row-1\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\"><\/td><th class=\"column-2\">Par ann\u00e9e<\/th><th class=\"column-3\">Par jour<\/th><th class=\"column-4\">Covid-19<br \/>\nTotal d\u00e8s le d\u00e9but<br \/>\njusqu'au 30 avril<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody class=\"row-striping row-hover\">\n<tr class=\"row-2\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">Suisse<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">67 000<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">184<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">1407<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-3\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">Monde<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">58 000 000<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">159 000<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">227051<br \/>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<!-- #tablepress-9 from cache --><\/p>\n                  <p class=\"u-text u-text-default u-text-7\"><b>\u00c9volution de la contagion<\/b>\n                    <br>Rien n'est vraiment exponentiel car tout a une fin, les \u00e9pid\u00e9mies qui auraient un succ\u00e8s \u00e0 100% ne sont pas pour demain, n'en d\u00e9plaise aux catastrophistes de service.<br>\n                  <\/p>\n                  <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/exponentiel-logistique.gif\" alt=\"\" class=\"u-image u-image-contain u-image-default u-image-2\" data-image-width=\"640\" data-image-height=\"480\">\n                <\/div>\n              <\/div>\n            <\/div>\n          <\/div>\n        <\/div>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n    \n    \n  \n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Observations faites sur l&rsquo;\u00e9volution pand\u00e9mique Mise en garde Aucune des informations et analyses pr\u00e9sent\u00e9es ici ne saurait \u00eatre comprise comme pr\u00e9vision ou pr\u00e9diction. Le v\u00e9n\u00e9r\u00e9 lecteur est donc pri\u00e9 de prendre ses responsabilit\u00e9s, de ne pas occire le messager, ni de faire des interpr\u00e9tations indues. \u00c9tat au 22 mai 2020 Ceci aura \u00e9t\u00e9 la derni\u00e8re &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/?page_id=6143\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \u00ab\u00a0Viralit\u00e9\u00a0\u00bb<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"iawp_total_views":7,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"class_list":["post-6143","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/6143","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6143"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/6143\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.mr-int.ch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6143"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}