Global warming is at a standstill since 17 years. Is it important?

Warmists are somehow bothered, sceptics and deniers are delighted: the temperature at the surface of the Earth does not grow any more since approximately 17 years. The first ones begin then to speak about a “pause” while the seconds use this fact to invalidate warming and its anthropogenic cause.

Both have good reasons for reacting as they do.

But both are also wrong.

The temperature does not just have to rise or not to indicate if climatic variations are, or not, underway. Since rather reliable measurements are available, the evolution of the temperature made waves, and we know that waves go up and down even when the tide is ebbing (and even also when flowing). If variations with high frequency are used to judge those having a longer period, then a gross mistake is made, the one on which these impatient sceptics are surfing.

For warmists, to speak about a pause means that they have no causal explanation. Otherwise they would provide it. Why is that? Because their oratorical assertions rest on models, and because these are effectively invalidated by actual observations. All but one models discussed in the last IPCC report overestimate boorishly the temperature that should be observed today; the reality does not correspond to the theory, thus there must be something that does not work with the models, and therefore, the predictions made with their help cannot be credible. Or then Nature, such a vixen, does not obey the theoretical models; that becomes really scandalous!

For thirty years the models were built to emphasize the role of CO2 in the atmosphere, thus to incriminate the human industry, devourer of fossil fuels. Moreover, no researcher would obtain any grant if he proposed a project consisting in exonerating CO2. Yet we know that other causes exist since strong climatic variations began to take place before coal, oil and gas were exploited. And also by means of simple, but valid, calculations of heat balance and radiative forcing it appears that the CO2 contribution to the current warming is not more than 30 % of the total. Let’s not make a reproach to the IPCC as it was not appointed to be a scientific society but to be a general attorney to solely prosecute for the incrimination of so-called greenhouse gases; and it accomplishes perfectly its mandate: since 1988, date of its creation, its position on the sensitivity of the climate to CO2 did not change a iota, in spite of questions staying without answers, and of the invalidation of the models for soon two decades.

It belongs to us, simple chaps, to raise the disturbing questions and to call out to the decision-makers: how long will you continue following this sectarian dogma? When will you decide to stop taxing carbon? When, by themselves and without imposed gurus, the people concerned will be authorized to define their own development priorities?


Merci de compartir cet article
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